Climate Change Sunday
I was thinking about making Sunday, my day to post some thoughts on Global Warming…I mean Climate Change. I forgot that Global Warming isn’t the right term to use anymore. In an effort to be as honest as possible, I will say upfront that I am a Warming Skeptic. By that I mean, I don’t think there is enough sufficient evidence to support Anthropogenic Warming (Man-Made Warming). I do acknowledge that the Earth has been warming for the past 100 years. That is to be expected after coming out of a mini-Ice Age though.
So far 2010 has been a bad year for Global Warming. The IPCC was forced to pull the year old claim that the Himilayan Glaciers were all going to melt by 2035.
In the past few days the scientists behind the warning have admitted that it was based on a news story in the New Scientist, a popular science journal, published eight years before the IPCC’s 2007 report.
Publishing a pop journal’s claim as a “peer-reviewed” scientific claim, that doesn’t sound like real science to me. This in itself is pretty damning. The IPCC is supposed to offer only scientifically valid claims about Global Climate Change. It seems like they’ll publish anything to support their claim of AGW.
This story has had some remarkable implications. The IPCC chief, Dr. Pachuari has known about this little mix up for months, and never told anyone.
Rajendra Pachauri was told that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment that the glaciers would disappear by 2035 was wrong, but he waited two months to correct it. He failed to act despite learning that the claim had been refuted by several leading glaciologists.
It’s one thing to accidentally publish a claim that was unknowingly false. It is entirely another thing to keep your mouth shut about the whole thing after you learn it was false. Of course how could Dr. Pachauri bother to delve into the details of the GlacierGate, he was “terribly occupied” with Copenhagen arrangements!
That’s two hits against AGW in one month.
But wait there’s more!
A new Science article suggests that Carbon isn’t a problem after all. That Mother Nature can and is correcting for any excess Carbon in the atmosphere. Here’s the abstract.
Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming
Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10% after the year 2000. Here, we show that this acted to slow the rate of increase in global surface temperature over 2000 to 2009 by about 25% compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. More limited data suggest that stratospheric water vapor probably increased between 1980 and 2000, which would have enhanced the decadal rate of surface warming during the 1990s by about 30% compared to estimates neglecting this change. These findings show that stratospheric water vapor represents an important driver of decadal global surface climate change.
The implications of the article drive a stake through the heart of most Warmist claims that we are all doomed unless we “do something.” Since 2000, global temperatures have not risen according to the models used in the IPCC report. One of the e-mails in the ClimateGate fiasco explicitly showed how frustrating that is.
The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.
It’s wildly known that water vapour has the biggest impact on the greenhouse effect, roughly 36-72%. Carbon is the second largest, 9-26%. None of the models used by the IPCC or any other group of “consensus” scientists that propagate AGW have water vapor anywhere in their models. That’s like saying a kid is fat not because he eats fast food and plays video games all day, but because his mom doesn’t give him his vitamins. It’s asinine. It’s not science.
This doesn’t disprove AGW claims. In science, nothing can really be proven or disproven. But, it does put a wrinkle in the “consensus” that AGW is a “proven” fact.